Assessment of the chances for Exploration Success: a three-step approach consistent with the petroleum resource classification

Abstract

The attractiveness of an exploration opportunity depends, among other factors, upon the chance of success. The estimation of this chance is not an easy task, especially for a company facing geological challenges such as exploration in new frontier areas or technological challenges such as production from deep and ultra-deep waters, complex reservoirs or heavy oils. In this work, a 3-step methodology is proposed to estimate the chance of success. First step is the evaluation of the probability that a given petroleum system had effectively worked in the area and a hydrocarbon accumulation is present (Chance of Recovery or Chance of Technological Success). Second step is the assessment of the chance that discovery occurs and production is feasible (Chance of Recovery or Chance of Technological Success). Third step is the estimation of the chance that there is a discovery, it is producible and the production is commercial (Chance of Commerciality or Chance of Economic Success). This 3-step approach enables specification of the contribution of the several elements involved in the complex task of evaluating the chances of success and is also consistent with the Guidelines… (2011).